No, There Will Be No “Classic Alt Season”—But Something Much Bigger Is Coming

A Data-Driven Look at Liquidity, Dominance, and Why the Next Altcoin Cycle Will Look Nothing Like 2017 or 2021

For months, a loud narrative has been circulating on X/Twitter:

“There will be no altcoin season. There are 36 million coins today versus only 1,300 in 2017. Liquidity is too diluted.”

It sounds logical… until you look at the actual data.
In this article, we break down why the “no alt season” narrative is misleading, what the real macro setup looks like, and why the coming liquidity cycle could trigger the strongest altcoin surge of the decade — but not in the way most people expect.

This is not hype, not a “top 5 coins to buy” list, and not an echo chamber.
It’s pure data, macro cycles, liquidity flows, dominance trends, and investor behavior.

Altcoin Season Is NOT Cancelled (Data Says Otherwise)

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I. The Misleading Narrative: “36 Million Coins = No Alt Season”

A post that went viral recently claimed:

• 2017: 1,300 cryptos

• 2021: <100,000

• Today: 36,000,000+

• Therefore, no alt season.

But this is fundamentally wrong.
Here’s the real picture, backed by volume data:

✔ Trading Volume Tells the Truth

A top analyst on X, James Bull, responded with the real data:

• In 2017 → 1,300 coins had more than $1M daily volume

• In 2025 → 1,300 coins STILL have more than $1M daily volume

• After 2,000 coins → volume collapses below $200k

• Everything after that ≈ irrelevant

Meaning:
We do NOT have 36 million competitors for liquidity.
We have the same 1,300–2,000 liquid assets that mattered in previous cycles.

Everything else is:

• dead

• forgotten

• illiquid

• meme junk

• or speculative noise created in minutes on Pump.fun and Base

Alt season has NEVER been about ticker quantity.
It’s always been about:

1. Liquidity

2. Macro conditions

3. Investor risk appetite

4. Bitcoin dominance turning

Which brings us to the real reason the next altcoin move hasn’t started yet.

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II. The Reality: We Haven’t Even Entered the Environment Where Alt Seasons Happen

A brilliant post from Wyckoff Architect summed up the situation perfectly:

“If you thought the 2023–2024 rally was an alt season, you’ve seen nothing yet.
That move happened during quantitative tightening.
Real alt seasons happen when liquidity expands.”

Every major altcoin cycle in history lines up with:

• Falling interest rates

• Quantitative easing (QE)

• Rising liquidity

• PMI expansion

• Risk-on behavior across markets

Everything until now has occurred during:

• QT (Quantitative Tightening)

• High rates

• Shrinking liquidity

• $7.5 trillion parked in money market funds

• Dominance in a strong uptrend

And despite this restrictive environment…

Some altcoins STILL performed well.

Imagine what happens when the environment actually flips supportive.

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III. The Liquidity Setup: $7.5 Trillion Waiting for Risk-On

Right now:

• $7.52T is sitting in U.S. money market funds

• Retail = $3T

• Institutional = $4.48T

This is a record high.

When the Fed begins cutting rates — even slowly — capital always:

➜ Flows down the risk curve:
money markets → bonds → equities → tech → crypto → altcoins

Every. Single. Cycle.

QT ends in December.
This doesn’t pump crypto overnight.
It does something more important:

It flips the direction of global liquidity.

And liquidity direction runs markets.

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IV. PMI: The Most Important Altcoin Indicator Nobody Watches

This is one of the most reliable macro signals for altcoins.

Every major altcoin breakout occurs when:

• PMI leaves contraction

• PMI enters expansion

Right now:

• PMI has been contracting for years.

• It is basing.

• It is sitting exactly where previous cycles flipped before massive alt rallies.

Historically, the pattern is:

1. PMI contraction → altcoin consolidation

2. PMI expansion → altcoin breakout

We are literally sitting on the flip zone.

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V. Bitcoin Dominance: Alt Seasons Only Start at Tops, Not Middles

People forget this:

Altcoin seasons NEVER start while BTC dominance is rising.

They start:

• At dominance tops

• When dominance rolls over

• During macro liquidity turns

• After rate cuts

• When PMI expands

Where are we today?

• Dominance is at its typical cycle top zone

• Liquidity is bottoming

• QT is ending

• Rate cuts are coming

• PMI is turning

• Risk models show altcoin risk-adjusted upside improving

• Bitcoin dominance already dropped from 63% → 59% since May

The preconditions for alt season are forming — right now.

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VI. Risk Models: Altcoins Are Becoming Less Risky Than Bitcoin

In mid-2025, data showed:

• Bitcoin entering higher long-term risk zones

• Many alts entering historically low-risk zones

That wasn’t sentiment.
It was risk data.

Now combine that risk data with:

• macro shift

• liquidity turn

• dominance top

• PMI expansion

• rate cuts

• $7T+ on the sidelines

• suppressed altcoins under QT

You get exactly the same setup seen before the explosive phases of:

• 2017 alt season

• 2021 DeFi + L1 season

• 2013 infrastructure alt season

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VII. Conclusion: No “Classic Alt Season”—But a Selective, Explosive One

The “no alt season” narrative fails because:

❌ It focuses on token quantity, not liquidity
❌ It ignores macro cycles
❌ It ignores the dominance cycle
❌ It ignores the PMI cycle
❌ It ignores money market flows
❌ It ignores rate cuts
❌ It ignores historical patterns

Here is the real map:

• Liquidity bottoming

• QT ending

• $7T+ in sidelined cash

• Dominance at historical reversal levels

• PMI in the flip zone

• Altcoin risk scores improving

• Rising probability of selective alt outperformance

We will not get a “2017 everyone-pumps” alt season.
The supply is too large for that.

But we can absolutely get:

A selective, rotational, fundamentals-driven, liquidity-fueled altcoin season — with massive upside for the right assets.

Not everything will pump.

But the ones that do may go far harder than most expect.